by Malik Miah and Barry Sheppard, published on Socialist Action, November 11, 2024
Donald Trump swept the election for president, winning the popular vote by about 73,000,000 to Kamala Harris’s 68,000,000, the first time a Republican won the popular vote since George W. Bush in 2005.
Trump also won the undemocratic but decisive Electoral College, 301 to 226, as of November 8 (with one state undecided with 11 electors), more than the 270 needed to win. The Electoral College is elected by the states. In most states, the winner takes all that state’s electors no matter how close the vote is, which explains the greater percent of electors for Trump than in the popular vote in this election and how he lost the popular vote in 2016 but won the Electoral College.
The Republicans also won control of the Senate, with 53 elected out of 100, with a few contests still undecided. The Republicans also won control of the House of Representatives.
Trump won most white voters, including white workers and women. This is not surprising, since no Democrat has won among whites since the mid 1960s.
Under the pressure of the mass civil rights movement, the Democrats betrayed their fellow Southern racist Democrats (called Dixiecrats) and passed the Voting Rghts Act that gave Blacks in the South the right to vote. The Dixiecrats switched and became Republicans.
There was no significantly greater gender gap by historical standards despite predictions.
The main issue deciding the outcome was the economy, as even mainstream media commentators agree. While for the billionaires, millionaires, and upper middle class the economy has been very good, for the overwhelming majority, including the working class and lower middle class, the high inflation during the Biden-Harris administration has not been matched by their income. They have been worse off.
For most, they have seen big price increases at grocery stores, in their housing including rents, and most necessary goods. This is what they know and feel in their everyday lives, not the dry statistics of the gross domestic product and so forth.
Harris offered nothing different from the Biden administration on the economy, while Trump just said people were better off during his first administration.
Trump made one point that appealed to workers. He claimed that he would repeal taxes on social security, which at present makes social security actually less than what it seems for many.
A majority of voters considered the economy more important than Trump’s racism, sexism, and his overall rhetoric, whether they agreed or opposed these.
This was probably a factor in 45 percent of Latinos who voted for Trump.
Black men did so only at 21 percent, a 9 percent increase from four years ago. Black women did so at 7 percent.
Harris and the Democrats said that the key issue was “democracy”, and implied that a Trump victory would overthrow “democracy” which was always vague. Did they mean that the election of Trump would usher in a dictatorship and the overthrow of Congress? Of course not. Since the election, the Democrats have dropped this charge.
It is true that Trump presents himself as the strong man that will set the country right. He demands total loyalty from his ever-changing associates in government and in the state administration. He is an authoritarian, and during his election campaign made many threats to make a clean sweep of those who opposed him, whom he called “the enemies from within.” He probably would like to be a dictator, but there is no indication that most of the ruling capitalist class wants or needs that at this stage or would allow that.
Trump’s hard core base is white racists of all classes. Trump is a racist and has been all his life. But that has been true for most U.S. presidents, including Democrats. What makes Trump stand out today is his more open racism, making his opposition to colored immigrants from Central America known from the get-go when he first announced he would run for president in 2016. He once mused, “Why aren’t there immigrants from Norway?”
In any case, with this new Congress he will have great leeway in making policy.
Another aspect of Harris’s defeat was that she turned her back on what was considered the Democrat’s base. One example is she lost many who oppose Israel’s genocidal war on Palestinians, a majority of U.S. people, when she gave full support to that war. It was no surprise that she lost Michigan where a large Arab population resides.
Biden and Harris led the harsh crackdown on campus youth who opposed Israel’s war.
While she would have been the first woman, the first Black (editor: Not first ‘Black’) and first Asian president, if she won, she didn’t say much about related issues, except on abortion.
She adopted much of Trump’s anti-immigrant policy as her own, with cosmetic differences.
In general, she moved to the right, hoping to appeal to Republicans opposed to Trump. She consciously appealed to conservative and right-wing Republicans like former Republican congresswoman Liz Cheney and her father, the warmonger Dick Cheney. But this had little effect on winning Republican voters to her side.
Harris vote 13 million fewer than Biden in 2020
An important fact is that there were about 13 million fewer votes cast than in 2020 when Biden won. This reflects that many were against both Harris and Trump, and while many of these don’t like Trump, they didn’t see Harris as an alternative. This hurt Harris’s vote. Before the election, some pro-Democrat writers in the mainstream media sensed this and pleaded for these voters to vote for Harris as the “lesser evil.”
An issue that separated Trump from the Democrats was his claimed opposition to the U.S.’s “forever” wars. He is critical of the U.S.-NATO war aims in Ukraine, which according to Secretary of State Blinken are to ”weaken Russia.” Trump wants the Ukraine war settled.
Most Americans are opposed to these “forever wars” including the disastrous wars in Afghanistan and Iraq.
Ten states vote on abortion
On women’s rights Harris and the Democrats had an edge for supporting reproductive freedom. There were 10 states that had referendums on abortion rights. Of these, seven passed.
- In Arizona, the Abortion Access Act passed, which said every woman has a “fundamental right” to receive abortion before viability, about 24 weeks. The vote was 62 percent for and 38 percent against.
- In Colorado, the right to abortion was added to the state constitution, and the use of public funds for abortion was allowed, 61 to 39 percent.
- In Maryland, a constitutional amendment was passed 74 to 26 percent.
- In Montana, a constitutional amendment passed 57 to 43 percent.
- In Missouri, a constitutional amendment passed 52 to 48 percent.
- In Nevada, a constitutional amendment passed 63 to 37 percent, but there will be a new vote in 2026.
- In New York abortion was already legal but was codified in the state constitution 63 to 37 percent.
- In Florida, a law affirming the right to abortion got 57 percent in favor, despite a vicious campaign against it using state funds by the arch-reactionary Governor Ron DeSantis. It failed, because in 2006 the state constitution was changed from a 50 percent majority vote to a 60 percent super majority for referendums to pass.
- In Nebraska there was a constitutional amendment for abortion rights on the ballot which failed, but another one was also on the ballot against abortion rights, but titled “Protect Women and Children”, which many thought was for abortion rights by its title, passed. Deliberate confusion by abortion opponents.
- In South Dakota, abortion rights failed, 39 percent for and 61 percent against.
Trump won in all these states except New York and Maryland, indicating many women and male supporters voted for abortion rights while supporting Trump. [Editor – Bottom line, the Democrats already failed to secure abortion rights at the federal level so its a state issue now]
Rebuilding the trade union and social movements
In the U.S., the capitalist ruling class faces a weak working class. Unionization as reported by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics is less than 11 percent of all workers and 6 percent for private sector industrial workers.
The independent Black, Brown, Asian and women’s movements are weak. There is no mass workers party, even a reformist one.
In the next period before Trump becomes president on January 20, he may make his proposals more concrete with less obfuscation and bluster, and especially after he takes over, and we see what he does against our interests. What will be required is popular mass struggles, not looking for the Democrats and Republicans for answers. This is where we start.
Fundamental change only occurs through class struggle. Mass action is the only road toward rebuilding the union movement, independent organizations of Blacks, women and all the oppressed, the revolutionary socialist movement and a mass workers party championing all the oppressed and exploited, and ultimately a socialist revolution.
*Featured Image: A surprisingly flattering photo of Trump. He looked so bad during the debate with Harris it seemed he might lose. Trump’s running mate, JD Vance, described his electoral performance as the “greatest political comeback” in US history. AP Photo/Evan Vucci AP Photo/Evan Vucci