by Syed Akif Zaidi in Palestine, published on Countercurrents, 09/10/2024
An entire year has now passed since the Palestinian uprising of October 7. As we enter the second year of this war, it is important to take stock of the ways in which a year of war has changed the geopolitical situation and balance of power in West Asia and beyond. In this regard, it’s important to consider how the man who is widely believed by both friend and foe to be the strategic and spiritual leader of the anti-American “Resistance Front”, Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatullah Syed Ali Khamenei, sees the present geopolitical landscape. Despite its importance, this is a perspective that is largely absent from most commentary on West Asia.
Coverage of last Friday’s prayer in Tehran led by Ayatullah Khamenei has been unprecedented. Many have noted that the massive crowds who thronged the open-air venue and surrounding streets to hear him despite the looming threat of an Israeli attack, signalled the unity and determination that exist in Iranian society with regards to its confrontation with the West. Much has also been said since then about his call for global Muslim unity in the face of a common enemy.
But if we seek to do a geopolitical assessment a year after October 7, there was much else in Ayatullah Khamenei’s speech that merits attention too. Delivering a speech that was infused with Quranic imagery in a calm, measured manner, he said that the past year of resistance has pushed Israel to the point where it’s now fighting for its very existence. In itself this isn’t a surprising statement; Israeli leaders and commentators routinely make this claim themselves. However, he then went on to emphasize that a fight for its existence is exactly the challenge that Israel faced in the early years following its creation in 1948, noting with satisfaction that just one year of resistance by the Palestinians and the Lebanese has been “able to push back the Zionist regime to the position it was in 70 years ago!”
This is a remarkable assessment. It indicates that in the view of their strongest enemies, the American-Israeli position in West Asia is far weaker than what most others assume it to be. Undoubtedly, while making this assessment Ayatullah Khamenei would have considered that such an astonishing collapse in power has happened despite decades of unqualified American financial, military and diplomatic support, and the possession of nuclear weapons. Taking this line of argument further, it may even be posited that Israel’s strategic position today may in fact be even weaker than what it was seven decades ago. This is because it faces at least three major challenges today, none of which existed at the time.
The first new challenge is the changed nature of the societies that are in direct opposition to Israel’s claims over the territory effectively under its control, i.e. the ordinary people of Palestine and Lebanon. While the victims of Israeli ethnic cleansing in the mid-20th century were mostly simple, rural folk scattered across the region, today’s Palestinian and Lebanese societies live in dense urban settings, united and hardened by years of a culture of resistance to Israeli policies of displacement and more. This culture is what their highly-trained and motivated militias such as Hamas and Hezbollah are rooted in and spring from. As the Lebanese ambassador in Delhi declared in a recent TV interview: “Hezbollah are the people.” This is a large part of the reason why, despite overwhelming superiority in technology and firepower, and a relentless year-long campaign of bombing and hunger in Gaza, Israel has failed to achieve any of its military goals. Experts believe that the bulk of Hamas’s fighting capabilities continue to be intact; in fact, there are credible reports of fresh recruitment and training inside Gaza. In Lebanon, Hezbollah continues to block Israel’s ground invasion despite the enormous blow it has suffered through the assassination of its larger-than-life leader, Syed Hassan Nasrallah.
The second new challenge is that groups such as those mentioned above are in fact part of a wider transnational network of multiple state and non-state actors collectively called the “Resistance Front”. The Houthi-led Ansarullah movement in Yemen, the Popular Mobilization Forces in Iraq and the Syrian Government are some of the other constituents of this network. Of course, Iran is the strongest part and the foundation of this network which includes in its ranks various ethnicities, nationalities and sectarian affiliations. Labelling the non-Iranian elements of this network as “Iranian proxies” obfuscates the reality on the ground; the fact is, that while not uncontested, every one of them enjoys substantial legitimacy in its own society, and autonomy in its own theatre of operations. They are united by their commitment to the establishment of complete sovereignty of the indigene over all of West Asia, including over all of Palestine. So, in contrast to the fragmented and low-tech Arab armies it faced seventy years ago, Israel today faces a network of battle-hardened indigenous movements and popular governments. In addition to a long-term vision for West Asia, this network not only has advanced hypersonic ballistic missiles, but also the will and ability to deliver them to its chosen targets deep inside Israel.
The third new challenge that Israel faces today is a shattering of its moral legitimacy on the world’s stage, especially in Europe and North America. While in the early years of its creation, Israel was able to present itself to Western societies as a benign extension of the West’s own putative civilizing mission among the benighted Arab savages, Israeli actions over the past year have utterly shredded this narrative. The damage has been so immense that it has dented broader Western moral legitimacy too, particular American soft power; it is as if the rapidly sinking ship of Israeli morality is dragging down anyone associated with it. This is the reason we see that the number of European governments trying to distance themselves from Israeli actions and to express some form of support for the Palestinian cause at the UNGA and elsewhere continues to rise steadily. For a political unit that has always depended on Western support to survive in a hostile environment, saying that this change has weakened Israel would be an understatement. Incidentally, Indian policy makers too would do well to take note of the risks of association with Israel and its war in Gaza.
It is at least in part because of these challenges that Israeli society has witnessed a series of catastrophic events and changes after October 7, none of which have any precedence in the Zionist state’s history. The list is long so we will stick to a mention of just three: Iranian missile attacks have shown that Israel is exposed and vulnerable despite full American support, several hundred thousand Israelis that have fled settlements near the border with Lebanon are sheltering in temporary housing, growing pessimism and fiscal disarray have led international rating agencies to downgrade Israeli bonds to near-junk status.
As they survey the region at the end of the first year of the war over Palestine, Ayatullah Khamenei and the Resistance Front would undoubtedly have taken note of not just the destruction and misery in Gaza and Lebanon, but also the points mentioned above. Perhaps this is why a change in tone could be sensed as he spoke of the Palestinian cause on Friday. Instead of drawing attention to the plight of the Palestinians suffering under war and occupation, or urging other Muslim rulers to cut ties with Israel, he chose instead to declare confidently that the Palestinians have an inalienable right to resist their occupiers, and that no one in the world has a right to criticize them for exercising this right. He also sternly added that no one has the right to criticize others who are helping the Palestinians in their legitimate struggle, and went on to declare that “every blow to the Zionist regime by any individual or group is not only a service to the entire region but to all of humanity.”
In summary, as the war over Palestine enters its second year the Resistance Front believes that – despite the enormous destruction in Palestine and Lebanon, and the assassination of high-profile leaders such as Ismail Haniyyah and Syed Hassan Nasrallah – the balance of power in West Asia has shifted decisively in its favour. As Israel lashes out with American backing to somehow manoeuvre out of the difficult situation it finds itself in, we can expect more of the same in the second year of this war: the Resistance Front will continue to stoically absorb most blows inflicted upon it and upon the societies it is rooted in, occasionally responding with a counterattack designed to further alter the scenario in its favour, all the while imposing gradually-increasing military, economic, political and moral costs on Israel and its backers. Deeply rooted in West Asia’s history, culture and demographics, and buoyed by the trends on the battlefield, as the war over Palestine enters its second year, the Resistance Front is already planning for the third year and beyond.
Syed Akif Zaidi is an Indian PhD student at the Al-Mustafa International University in Iran. Email: